Mortgage News

What a Ride
April 2nd, 2008 11:01 PM
Market Wrap: The ADP Employment report scrambled the eggs of the bond market early this morning with a far higher than anticipated estimate of private sector job creation. The notoriously unreliable ADP report forecast 8,000 new jobs while the consensus estimate was for a loss of -45,000 jobs. After adding in a monthly average of 32,000 government-created jobs, the ADP report suggests Friday's official Jobs number will surprise to the upside with the creation of about +40,000 jobs for March. This is a far greater number than the current consensus estimate of a loss of -50,000 jobs. Bonds sold off on the news while stocks began trading higher with bonds at one point plunging well below key support at the 50-day MA and testing secondary support at the 100-day MA. Also providing market turmoil was a Congressional Joint Economic Committee hearing that included testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, SEC Chair Christopher Cox, JP Morgan Chase CEO James Dimon and Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz. The topic of discussion was financial market turmoil with the present state of the housing market, credit crisis, and the outcome of the Fed engineered Bear Stearns bailout by JP Morgan included on the meeting agenda. Bernanke stated the economy may be headed into a brief recession during the first half of this year, but he was more optimistic about the economy over the second half of the year as the full effects of the Fed's interest rate cuts begin to stimulate economic growth. Bonds were hit with some additional selling pressure at this point and stocks were cruising along a little higher until the release of the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) report of an unexpected decline in gasoline inventories due to higher demand. The EIA reported a 4.5 million barrel decline in gasoline inventories from last week and this was twice the inventory decline forecast. This news triggered a rally in oil prices to $104 per barrel and created a sharp spike in gasoline futures prices. This news did not sit well with the stock market as it suggests retail gas prices will increase to levels this summer that will create a far greater financial burden on consumers while negatively impacting corporate earnings. As stocks then retreated on this news, our benchmark FNMA 5.5% mortgage bonds staged a late session rally and bounced back from a -44bp deficit to reclaim the 50-day MA support level with a close at $100.38, down -12bp. Meanwhile, the major stock market indexes slipped with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing 45 points lower at 12,608; the NASDAQ Composite Index dropping a point to close at 2,361; and the broader S&P 500 Index dipping just 2 points to close at 1,367.

Posted by on April 2nd, 2008 11:01 PMPost a Comment (0)

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